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It is estimated that by 2021, the capacity growth of global airlines will be less than 15%.
Industry reports and experts said that due to travel restrictions, strict blockades in some countries, and slow progress in global vaccination work, global airline capacity is expected to grow by less than 15% this year.
The UK-based global travel data provider OAG said that as the aviation market is still struggling to take off at full speed, the capacity of global airlines is unlikely to reach pre-pandemic levels at the earliest by 2023.
OAG’s John Grant said: “Total capacity by the end of the year is currently 3.7 billion seats, and the 2020 plan is 3.2 billion seats, which reflects a 15% increase in a year that should have rebounded.”
“Compared to 2019, this will be a drop of around 36%, which shows that we still have a long way to go! Airlines have cut another 17 million seats from their schedule to the end of the week,” he said in the latest OAG said the report.
The capacity of global airlines continues to stay slightly below the level of 80 million seats per week. Due to the substantial increase in capacity in Northeast Asia, the capacity has increased slightly, bringing us back to 79 million. The OAG report stated that the chances of “we will return to the 80 million mark this year” are now slim, as airlines have further adjusted their flight schedules and stored any cash they generate for the winter.
699 airline operations
The aviation consulting company further stated that compared with the 715 at the beginning of the pandemic, there are still 699 scheduled airlines operating.
Grant said: “This proves that the airline has been very successful and has managed to survive the crisis. However, in terms of demand, it may not be until 2024 at the earliest that the aviation industry can be fully restored.”
More positively, the current production capacity of the five regional markets exceeds 80% of the level before the epidemic.
“Central Asia is expected to achieve a full recovery because it reached more than 90% of its operating capacity in 2019 last week. West Africa also has a positive story, and the current capacity in the region is 89% of 2019 levels,” Ogg.
No quick recovery
Andrew Charlton, managing director of Aviation Advocacy, a Geneva-based consulting company, said that the aviation industry shows no signs of a rapid recovery, and it all depends on the success of global vaccination campaigns.
“The international aviation industry will have another bad year, which is completely related to our success in defeating the virus and its variants. We will see improvements in the local situation in countries that have achieved good success rates in controlling the epidemic. But this will be limited to the domestic market,” Charlton told Khaleej Times.
Everything depends on the vaccination drive
The aviation strategy consulting company said that the industry’s recovery will depend on global vaccination and suppression, and a lot of work will still be needed in the coming months.
“There is no doubt that suppressed demand. We will not see a vigorous recovery in the 20s, but a small-scale recovery in the country, depending on the country’s success in fighting Covid. At present, there are less than 16% in the world. Of people are fully vaccinated,” Charlton said.
Inconsistent travel needs
The International Air Transport Association (Iata) also showed in its latest report that compared with June, the demand for international and domestic travel in July 2021 has improved, but it is still far below pre-pandemic levels.
The global aviation agency stated that international passenger demand in July was 73.6% lower than in July 2019, better than the 80.9% drop in June 2021 compared to two years ago.
The International Air Transport Association stated: “Compared with July 2019, Middle Eastern airlines’ demand in July fell by 74.5%, surpassing the 79.2% in June and the same month in 2019.”
“Capacity dropped by 59.5% and load factor dropped by 30.1 percentage points to 51.3%,” the International Air Transport Association said.
muzaffarrizvi@khaleejtimes.com
Muzaffar Rizvi
The business editor/news editor of Khaleej Times is a well-connected reporter and economic and financial commentator. Since 1997, he has been engaged in mainstream journalism, covering the UAE’s economy and key sectors. He holds a graduate degree in economics and has won many awards for his true and insightful reports on global and regional business and economic trends.
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