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U.S. President Joe Biden, accompanied by Australian and British Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Rishi Sunak, gathers in front of the Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Missouri in San Diego, California, on March 13. The three leaders announced the implementation plan for AUKUS, an agreement signed by the three countries in September 2021. So what is AUKUS?
At the heart of AUKUS is the US and UK commitment to help Australia build at least 8 nuclear-powered (but not nuclear-armed) attack submarines, known as SSNs (subs carrying ICBMs are called SSBNs, the “B” stands for “ballistic”) . Australia was supposed to buy diesel-electric boats from France to replace submarines currently in service in the 1990s. But nuclear-powered submarines can stay underwater for longer periods of time. They can carry conventional missiles, but just as important is their ability to gather intelligence and deploy special forces ashore.
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The new submarine, called SSN-AUKUS, will be of a joint Australian and British design. It will be based on the UK’s next-generation attack submarine, the SSNR, enhanced with US technology, including vertical tubes to house the missiles. The first subs will be built in Barrow, England, and will be ready in the late 2030s; the first in Australia will be built in Adelaide, but may not be completed until after 2040, and may be located in New South Wales Port Kembla, State. The Australian Government estimates the scheme will support 8,500 domestic jobs.
The deal also involves major changes to the posture of the U.S. and U.K. navies. As a stopgap measure, the U.S. will deploy Virginia-class attack submarines as early as 2027, with up to four of them passing through HMAS Stirling, a naval base near Perth on Australia’s west coast, in successive rotations. The UK wants to send one Canny-class submarine – 14% of its eventual fleet. Finally, in the early 2030s, Australia will purchase three to five Virginia-class submarines to bridge the gap between the retirement of its current submarines and nuclear alternatives. That could put pressure on the U.S. Navy, which is trying to ramp up production.
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For Australia, it will all be what officials call a “national effort”. It must expand and upgrade HMAS Stirling to receive new US and UK submarines, and eventually its own. It will invest money and manpower at shipyards in the US and UK to expand their output. Last year, the first Royal Australian Navy personnel took part in the US nuclear propulsion training program; later this year its sailors will gain experience in the US and UK navies. “It connects the three of us in ways that are almost unimaginable for the foreseeable future,” said a senior U.S. official.
AUKUS raised some non-proliferation issues. Australia would be the first non-nuclear-weapon country to have a nuclear submarine (although India leased one from Russia in the 1980s and 1990s). Once the submarine is decommissioned, it must also manage radioactive waste. China called AUKUS an “illegal transfer of nuclear weapons material”. However, while the submarine will indeed use highly enriched uranium, the reactor will be welded shut and will not require refueling for the life of the submarine. The IAEA, the UN watchdog, said it would engage in “very complex technical negotiations” with the AUKUS nation to monitor any nuclear risks.
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It’s not just about subs, though. AUKUS is also a broad defense technology agreement. The three countries established 17 joint working groups; nine of them are related to submarines, but the rest are related to other advanced military technologies, including underwater drones, quantum technology for positioning, navigation and timing (think next-generation GPS ), artificial intelligence, cyber defense, hypersonic missiles and electronic warfare. A recent report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a think-tank, showed China leads the world in 37 of 44 key technologies, as measured by “high-impact” research papers. The idea is that by pooling talent and resources, whether it’s submarine building or artificial intelligence, the U.S. and its allies can compete more effectively and close the gap.
© 2023, The Economist Limited. all rights reserved. From The Economist, published with permission.Original content available at www.economist.com
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