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Given the grim forecast range for climate in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, it’s easy to feel pessimistic about the future of our planet. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in a speech to mark Earth Day that “we seem determined to perish,” echoing the sentiments of many.
Given the grim forecast range for climate in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, it’s easy to feel pessimistic about the future of our planet. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned in a speech to mark Earth Day that “we seem determined to perish,” echoing the sentiments of many.
However, the future is not set in stone, and 2023 could be the year leaders take aggressive climate action despite heightened geopolitical tensions between major powers, a surge in conflict and climate impacts that dent already sluggish growth. That might sound overly optimistic. But there are several compelling reasons why this is the case – and the fact that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host the next COP climate change summit is at the heart of it.
The controversial decision to hold this round of key climate talks in the Gulf offers the UAE an opportunity to meet the political moment and detail what a post-fossil fuel world might look like.country has struggle Acknowledged the role of fossil fuels in emissions and agreed to phase them out in previous rounds of negotiations. But the UAE can achieve a modern energy diplomacy “Nixon to China” moment. Its credentials as an oil producer allow it to rally the world around this apparently fundamental statement.
State and private oil and gas companies may finally understand that they need to dramatically adjust their investments in renewable energy, but they are a long way from doing so. Even the leading oil and gas majors often have less than 25% clean energy in their total portfolios, a situation that needs to change significantly.the good news is McKinsey’s most recent analysis suggests that when portfolio cleanliness exceeds 40%, and companies move closer to aligning with the Paris Agreement, they will start to see upside in investor valuations.
Who better to prove that it is part of the solution than the UAE? The UAE cannot play it safe. 2023 is the United Nations “Global Inventory” Progress on the Paris Agreement published, which will be difficult to read and will require a clear political response at COP28. As the guardian of the UN climate process, the UAE must be guided by the latest science and push to protect the most vulnerable, not vested interests. It’s a high-risk, high-reward COP: At this stage of the climate crisis, the results are either ambitious or disastrous.
As the UAE hosts the COP, any potential Dubai deal must signal to global markets that the fossil fuel era is coming to an end, or the COP process will lose its last credibility.International Energy Agency’s Latest Recommended Provides governments with a realistic path forward, calling for a tripling of renewable energy installations by 2030. COP28 can support them. The UAE is in a good position because Sultan Al Jaber is both the chairman of the COP and the head of the state oil company. The UAE can thus bring the national oil company, which accounts for 80% of production, into the energy transition like never before.
The UAE must also recognize that the world needs a financial agreement on climate by 2023. The widening gap between policy needs and financial flows means there is yet another opportunity for a breakthrough.Jabel explain He wants to bring a business approach to climate solutions.bay is home important Underleveraged sovereign and development funds. One idea under consideration is to use some of the financial depth to make the current system work through guarantees and risk sharing. But the Gulf region is highly vulnerable to climate-induced water shortages and extreme weather. It can also stand in solidarity with the most vulnerable, who need grant and subsidy support to build their resilience. The bold move here will allow the UAE to develop partnerships with friends in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Pacific.
A broader discussion around reform of the financial system gained momentum at the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank in April. It will continue to the annual meeting in Marrakech a few weeks before COP28.As Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley and WTO Chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said recent: “Access to financing on long-term and low-cost terms is integral to building a more sustainable and inclusive global economy.” Loading low- and middle-income countries with more debt is a one-way ticket to global economic collapse .
These works will be delivered in 2023. The start of the UAE’s presidency of the COP has been a quiet one – many traveling the world, listening to tours, and hundreds of consultants and others clamoring to get closer to the process. The world is waiting to see how it will shape the agenda and drive the world to a deal – playing the role of the rotating presidency, not the UAE. We can look at football, the UAE has been impressive over the past decade and is a sport close to Al Jaber’s heart. It was a game of two halves, as they say, and we approached half-time without a goal; the UAE had to come up with a bold strategic move because the planet needs a win, not a draw or defeat.
Rachel Kyte is dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University and a former UN climate envoy.
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