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Although it has brought four years of stability after a decade of crises, Iceland has begun voting in elections, which may cause its unprecedented left and right coalition to lose a majority of seats.
As the political landscape is more divided than ever, the process of forming a new alliance after Saturday’s poll may be more complicated than in the past.
Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir’s left-wing Green Party movement has never led the government before, and she is seeking a second appointment, but a large number of parties may hinder her.
The Icelandic Parliament Alsing is the oldest parliament in the world, with 63 seats, which means that most governments need at least 32 seats.
Opinion polls show that 9 out of 10 record-breaking parties are expected to win seats in Iceland’s nearly 1,100-year-old parliament. This makes it particularly tricky to predict which parties may eventually form coalitions.
The outgoing coalition has 33 of the 63 seats and is a mixture of the conservative Independence Party, the center-right Progressive Party, and the left-wing green movement.
Some opinion polls indicate that the current alliance will try to obtain a small majority, but others say it will fail.
Peacekeeping
Although Jacobs Dottier is very popular, her party is hovering around 10-12% in the polls and may lose several seats.
During her four-year tenure, Jakobsdottir introduced a progressive income tax system, increased the social housing budget and extended parental leave for both parents.
She was also praised for handling the COVID crisis, with only 33 deaths in this country of 370,000 people.
But she also had to make concessions to maintain the peace of her alliance, including a promise to establish a national park in central Iceland with 32 active volcano systems and 400 glaciers.
People walk past an election poster of the Left Green Movement with Prime Minister Katrin Jacobsdottir [Brynjar Gunnarsson/AP Photo]Five polls in 10 years
This is the second time since 2008 that the government has ended its four-year term on this huge island.
From 2007 to 2017, Icelanders deeply distrusted politicians during multiple scandals and asked them to participate in public opinion polls five times.
The Independent Party, which polls about 20-24% of the votes, is also at risk of losing seats, but is expected to remain the largest party.
Its leader, Minister of Finance Bjarni Benediktsson, is a former prime minister and comes from a family that has long held power on the right. He once again focused on the post of Prime Minister.
Benediktsson has survived several political scandals, including being involved in 2016 Panama Papers Leaked an offshore tax haven and is participating in his fifth election.
“I am optimistic and I feel supported,” he said at a campaign rally this week, insisting that his party will continue to be the “pillar of the next government.”
But five other parties followed closely, with 10% to 15% of the vote.
They are the Left Green Movement, the Progressive Party, the Social Democratic Alliance, the Liberal Pirate Party, and the Center-Right Reform Party. The newly formed Socialist Party is also expected to shine.
“The Land of Ice and Fire”
The broken political landscape will make it difficult to form a new government, but Jacobs Dottier may seek alliances with other left-wing parties that polls show will gain support.
“If we have such a government, we will see some changes in taxation of the rich, and environmental issues will become more important,” said Baldvin Bergsson, political analyst at RUV Broadcasting.
Climate change is an important issue for Icelanders. They like to call their country the “land of ice and fire” because of its extraordinary volcanic and glacier landscape.
Iceland has pledged to be carbon neutral by 2040, far ahead of most other European countries, but especially young voters are pushing for bolder measures.
The left-wing parties also called for an increase in government spending on health care, which has always been the most important topic in the election.
The successful fight against the pandemic and the lifting of coronavirus restrictions have reopened borders and provided the necessary boost for the important tourism industry, which attracted approximately 2 million foreign tourists in 2019.
Stefania Oskarsdottir, a political scientist at the University of Iceland, said: “The pandemic has dealt a huge blow to the important tourism industry,” she added, adding that high public spending has fueled optimism.
“Despite a deep recession, ordinary Icelanders think that now is a good time,” she said.
Voting starts at 9 am (09:00 GMT). Soon after the polling station closes at 10pm (22:00 GMT), the first batch of results is expected to be announced on Saturday, but it is not expected to see a clear picture until Sunday.
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