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Monday, March 4, 2024

Angola’s Exit Deals a Setback to OPEC+ Amid Escalating Tensions-1

Despite concerted efforts, OPEC+ faces an uphill battle in stabilizing oil prices, with November’s output cuts failing to elevate them from a six-month low.

Discord Within the Ranks

Internal disagreements during recent talks and Angola’s exit contribute to skepticism about OPEC+’s unity, underscoring the complexities of managing diverse interests within the expanded alliance.

Impact Assessment of Angola’s Exit

While Angola’s departure adds a layer of uncertainty, its relatively modest production scale and unique economic factors temper immediate concerns, distinguishing it from major Middle Eastern producers.

Historical Departures and Present Challenges 

Drawing parallels with previous exits by smaller nations like Indonesia, Qatar, and Ecuador, OPEC+ grapples with decision-making complexities stemming from its expanded membership.

Shifting Global Dynamics

The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights a transformative shift in global oil supply dynamics, with OPEC+ witnessing a dip to 51%, the lowest share since its inception. Notable production gains in the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana contribute to this evolution.

Evolution of OPEC and Present Challenges

From its founding in 1960 to the present, OPEC’s historical dominance and crisis management strategies are contrasted with contemporary challenges arising from a diversified oil market and internal conflicts.

Global Impact and Changing Trade Patterns: OPEC+ 

The IEA underscores the profound impact of the U.S. and Atlantic Basin countries on global oil trade, signaling a departure from traditional Middle Eastern dominance and posing challenges for OPEC+.

Amidst these multifaceted dynamics, OPEC+ finds itself at a critical juncture, navigating market uncertainties, internal dissent, and a surge in non-OPEC oil production.

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