As international traffic recovers and domestic air travel returns to pre-pandemic levels, Boeing forecasts global demand for 42,595 new commercial airplanes worth $8 trillion by 2042.
Boeing released its 2023 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) ahead of the Paris Air Show, which forecasts 20-year demand for commercial aircraft and services.
The new chief marketing officer comes three years after the coronavirus pandemic grounded much of the world’s fleet. Key findings include:
• Passenger traffic continued to outpace global economic growth of 2.6%.
• The global fleet nearly doubled to 48,600 aircraft, growing 3.5% annually.
• Airlines have replaced about half of the world’s fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models.
Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing, said: “After unprecedented disruption, the aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying fleets, Increase efficiency and take advantage of recovering demand.”
“Looking ahead to the future of air travel, our 2023 CMO reflects passenger growth in relation to the growth of the global middle class, sustainable investments, continued growth of low-cost airlines, and air cargo demand to serve evolving supply chains and express services. The further development of the quantity of goods delivered.”
Boeing’s forecasts for regional demand and key trends to 2042 include:
*The Asia-Pacific market accounts for more than 40% of global demand, half of which comes from China.
• South Asia’s fleet size will grow by more than 7% annually, the fastest in the world, with India accounting for more than 90% of passenger traffic in the region.
• North America and Europe each account for around 20% of global demand.
• Low-cost airlines will operate more than 40% of the single-aisle fleet by 2042, up from 10% 20 years ago.
• While last year’s CMO ignored demand in Russia and Central Asia due to uncertainty in the region, this year’s forecast covers Russia and Central Asia in the Eurasian region, which accounts for around 3% of the global fleet by 2042.
• Commercial Services predicts a total services market of $3.8 trillion, including digital solutions to improve efficiency and reduce costs; strong demand for parts and supply chain solutions; increased maintenance and retrofit options; and effective training to improve Safety and support for the delivery of pilots and technicians.
Also over the 20-year forecast period, Boeing projects demand for these models:
• New single-aisle aircraft will account for more than 75% of all new deliveries, slightly higher than the forecast for 2022, with a total of more than 32,000 aircraft.
• The new wide-body jets will account for nearly 20 percent of deliveries, with more than 7,400 aircraft allowing airlines to expand into new markets and serve existing routes more efficiently.
• Air cargo will continue to outpace global trade growth, with airlines requiring 2,800 dedicated freighters.These include more than 900 new wide-body aircraft as well as converted narrow-body and wide-body models