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In the past few months, violence has escalated in the occupied West Bank. The armed conflict between the Palestinians and the Israeli army in Jenin and Jerusalem and other places has resulted in the death of several Palestinian combatants and civilians, and the wounding of several Israeli occupying soldiers. There have also been stabbings, car crashes and shooting incidents targeting Israeli soldiers and settlers in various locations.
These incidents coincided with the escape of six Palestinian political prisoners from Gilboa prison in Israel.
In light of these developments, Israeli security services have expressed increasing concern about the growing resistance in the West Bank. More specifically, Israeli officials worry that Hamas will take over the occupied Palestinian territory currently under the name of the Palestinian Authority (PA). But how realistic is this prospect?
Since Hamas won the Palestinian legislative elections in 2006, Israel has regarded the movement as a serious threat. Then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made it clear that his government will not cooperate with the Hamas-led cabinet like the Palestinian Authority led by Fatah.
Subsequently, the tension between Fatah and Hamas escalated into an armed conflict under the impetus of external forces, in which Hamas fighters took control of the Gaza Strip. Israel carried out a debilitating siege of the zone and waged deadly wars against its people in the following years, killing thousands of people and destroying civilian homes and infrastructure.
At the same time, the Palestinian Authority, now again controlled by Fatah, launched a large-scale security operation to eradicate Hamas from West Bank. In cooperation with Israel, it arrested hundreds of Hamas members, closed its offices and associations, and suppressed its supporters. The same happened with the Islamic Jihad, an ally of Hamas.
Since then, the movement has been able to establish small groups to conduct limited operations against the Israeli army. But the violence of the past few months has raised concerns among Israeli security circles about the extent to which Hamas has penetrated the West Bank and its ability to mobilize other groups to conduct resistance activities.
Some people believe that the new “security infrastructure” built by Hamas is different from the limited prison cells in the past and is more difficult to track. This development can be considered a major failure of the Israeli occupying forces and intelligence services, which have strengthened their control over the West Bank in the past few years.
Hamas also seems to be increasingly coordinating field activities with other Palestinian factions. In mid-September, with the escalation of violence and fears of Israeli attacks on Jenin, Hamas, Fatah and the armed factions of Islamic Jihad announced the establishment of a joint “war room” to resist any Israeli attacks.
A major consequence of these developments is that Israeli settlers in Israel and the West Bank feel increasingly insecure. People worry that the West Bank and Jerusalem may fall into violence, as they did during the so-called knife-edge uprising in 2015-16, when hundreds of Palestinians and dozens of Israelis were killed, or in the 1990s and 2000s. The second uprising.
Although the Israeli army conducts regular arrest operations, issues security summons, and repeatedly invades cities, villages and refugee camps throughout the West Bank around the clock, and Israel and the Palestinian Authority continue to coordinate security, these attacks still occur.
It is worth noting that the recent armed attacks took place against the backdrop of growing anger against the Palestinian Authority. In April, President Mahmoud Abbas cancelled the Palestinian legislative elections because of fears that Fatah, which dominates the Palestinian Authority, would lose to Hamas. This has aroused strong condemnation from all Palestinian political factions and the Palestinian people.
Palestinians are also angry at the Palestinian Authority’s weak response to Israel’s aggression against Al-Aqsa mosque worshipers and the forced deportation of Palestinian residents in Jerusalem. Similarly, the Palestinian government has not taken any measures to resist the deadly Israeli attack on Gaza in May.
In late June, Nizar Banat (Nizar Banat) died at the hands of the Palestinian Authority security forces, which is another incident that prompted the Palestinians to reject Abbas. The assassination attracted a large number of Palestinians to the streets, where they faced brutal suppression by Palestinian security forces. This only aroused further anger and amplified calls for Abbas to resign.
A poll published by the Palestine Policy and Research Center in September showed that 80% of respondents wanted the president to resign. At the same time, 45% of people believe that Hamas should lead the Palestinians, while only 19% believe that Fatah should play this role.
Popular opposition to Abbas and the armed military struggle against Israel’s occupation of the West Bank have raised concerns in certain circles that Hamas may benefit from these events and mobilize other factions for its own purposes. Some Israeli and foreign analysts have consistently stated that such mobilization may lead Hamas to control the West Bank as it did in Gaza.
It is true that Hamas hopes to become the dominant force in Palestinian politics and end Abbas’s dictatorship, but for several reasons, claims that Hamas may take over the West Bank seem to be exaggerated.
First, Hamas still does not have a comprehensive and durable infrastructure in the West Bank, so it does not have the necessary power to expand its influence on it. Its popularity may have increased, but the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli occupying forces continue to make serious efforts to dismantle groups and networks loyal to the organization. This prevents it from building a deeper footprint.
Second, the Palestinian Authority may be rejected by many Palestinians, but it still holds all military power over the West Bank. It may be affected by internal tensions, but it can still mobilize effective loyalists, who are united and afraid of losing their privileges if their patrons lose power. Palestinian Authority officials are prepared to make every effort to stay in power and will not hesitate to seek Israeli military help.
Third, Israel continues to seek to drive Hamas out of the West Bank at all costs, because any increase in Hamas’s capabilities there would pose a serious threat to the more than 400,000 Israeli settlers who illegally live in occupied Palestinian land. They are extremely unlikely to allow Hamas to expand its power in the West Bank to the extent that it can take over.
After the recent tensions following the cancellation of the elections, some Israeli officials spread fears about Hamas’s capabilities that may be aimed at undermining any mediation efforts between Hamas and Fatah. Keeping the Palestinian factions divided so that they can never form a united front against Israeli occupation and crime is in Israel’s direct interest.
Israeli leaders are also hyping Hamas’ “revival”, possibly in order to win more international support for its brutal security campaign against the Palestinians. It is concerned about the growing international concern about the attack on the Al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam, and the forced deportation of Jerusalemites from their homes. Therefore, it tried to divert attention from these crimes and once again dominate the narrative about Palestine.
However, what Israel and its allies cannot rule out is the huge loss of legitimacy suffered by the Palestinian Authority, which makes its long-term rule of the West Bank completely untenable.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance.
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