How important was the Russian retreat from Kherson?

Ukrainian officials said Ukrainian flags were “in large numbers everywhere” after Russia retreated from the southern region of Kherson, one of four regions of Ukraine annexed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in September.

Ukraine’s months-long offensive to retake the city of Kherson, the only provincial capital that has been under Russian control since the early days of the invasion, is coming.

After a series of battlefield losses and other setbacks, the fall of the city would bring yet another humiliation to Moscow.

-Why is this city so important?

With a population of 280,000 before the war, Kherson was the only regional capital occupied by Russian troops.

The city and surrounding areas fell into the hands of Moscow at the start of the war as Russian troops quickly advanced northward from the Crimean peninsula — an area the Kremlin illegally annexed in 2014.

Its loss is a major blow to Ukraine, as it is located on the Dnieper River near the mouth of the Black Sea and is a major industrial center.

Kherson is also located where Ukraine could cut off fresh water from the Dnieper to Crimea. After the annexation of the Crimean peninsula, Kyiv blocked the vital supplies, and Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the need to restore them as one of the reasons for his decision to invade Ukraine.

– What’s happening now?

In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have made progress northwest, west and northeast of the city of Kherson, advancing four miles in some areas, according to the Institute for War Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

“The Russians have moved into positions where they want to be easier to defend. Ukraine will have to decide if, when and how to move forward,” said Olga Oliker, Europe and Central Asia director at the International Crisis Group.

“But Ukraine seems to be about to take it back… This is good news for Nikolayev, Russia will now have a harder time bombing it. This is a major advance for Ukraine.”

When Russia withdrew its troops from the west bank of the river that divides the region, they left behind wreckage and destroyed critical infrastructure including power facilities and bridges, said Kherson-based Ukrainian-appointed regional official Shershi Kran.

“This all has to be rebuilt,” he said in a video briefing on Friday. “While fleeing, they blew up everything, everything that could stop (Ukraine’s) progress.”

Mr. Khlan advised civilians to stay at home and said the humanitarian situation was very complicated, with electricity being cut off and communications very limited.

– What did the Kremlin say?

The Kremlin remained defiant on Friday, insisting that developments on the battlefield in the Kherson region would never embarrass Putin.

The Kremlin’s regional government in Kherson reportedly relocated at least 70,000 residents earlier this month amid fears of a Ukrainian counterattack of this magnitude.

A retreat from Kherson and other areas on the west bank of the Dnieper would dash Russia’s hopes of pushing Mykolev and Odessa west to cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Moscow also wants to create an overland corridor to Moldova’s separatist Transnistria region, home to Russia’s main military base.

“Losing Kherson will make all the southern dreams of the Kremlin come to nothing,” said Ukrainian military analyst Olekhzhdanov.

“Kherson is the key to the entire southern region, which will allow Ukraine to target key supply routes for Russian troops. The Russians will do everything they can to keep it under control.”

– What does retaking Kherson mean for Ukraine?

For Ukraine, the capture of Kherson would lay the groundwork for the recovery of the Russian-occupied Zaporozhye region and the rest of the south, and eventually push back into Crimea.

“After the occupation of Kherson, the Russians will again face freshwater problems in Crimea,” Mr Zhdanov added.

– What will China think?

Control of the Kherson region and other southern regions is a major gain for Russia, and their loss will have painful consequences for Putin at home and abroad, said Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta Center independent think tank.

“If the Russians leave Kherson, the Kremlin will face another wave of fierce criticism of the military command and the authorities from ultra-patriots,” Fesenko said, adding that the fall of the city would further weaken the Russian armed forces morale of troops and may fuel opposition to mobilization efforts.

“Putin will face reputational damage not only at home, but also in the eyes of China, which could be especially dangerous for the Kremlin,” Fesenko added.