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On March 10, 2023, Saudi Arabian Minister of State and National Security Advisor Mosad bin Mohammad Alban met with Iranian Rear Admiral and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani in Beijing, China.Photo: Saudi Press Agency/Handout via Reuters
A China-mediated Saudi-Iran settlement could draw attention to fundamental flaws in the security policies of regional powers, not only Saudi Arabia and Iran, but also the United Arab Emirates.
While much of the discussion in recent years has focused on Iran’s strategy to build defenses far beyond its borders by cultivating and/or supporting militias allied to various Arab states, Saudi Arabia and, more importantly, the UAE have also taken similar approach.
To be sure, Iran itself is to blame for being at the center of the debate. Even so, a Saudi-Iran deal could go a long way toward mitigating the challenges posed by what scholar Andreas Krieg calls “alternative wars,” not just short-term responses to conflicts such as the war in Yemen. resolution, but also challenges to long-term restructuring. The overall security architecture of the Gulf.
Support for militias “empowers complex networks of agents … that are increasingly acting as actors undermining post-conflict solutions and state-building . . . Security assistance to non-state actors … has no contributes to building institutions in recipient countries, and instead contributes to the polarization and division of conflicts,” Krieger said in A study just published UAE policy in Yemen and Libya.
Under the umbrella of public relations and public diplomacy, the UAE has long been able to hide from public view the negative implications of its regional security strategy, including its radical opposition to political Islam and its quest to become a dominant power. define what is moderate islam.
As happened in Libya, where the UAE joins Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and others in backing renegade Libyan Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar against the country’s internationally recognized government, the UAE’s campaign against Yemeni separatist groups Support could complicate, if not hinder efforts, the war to end it.
In a sign of what might be happening in Yemen, Haftar’s Libyan National Army has refuses to relinquish control of oil-rich areas in eastern and southern Libya. Haftar has threatened to return to war if the political stalemate in the country persists.
Policymakers and analysts see the end of Saudi military intervention in Yemen as a litmus test for the recent Saudi-Iran deal brokered by China.
The UAE withdrew most of its troops from Yemen in 2019, but continues to support the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which calls for South Yemen’s independence, which would restore the two separate Yemeni states that existed before unification in 1990.
In the first reaction, Council welcomes China-mediated agreement “As a manifestation of our passion for strengthening relations between peoples and nations in our region.” The council controls strategic ports and waterways in southern Yemen, the UNESCO-protected Socotra archipelago, and volcanoes in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait Island Ma Yun.
The UAE is running Socotra as if it were UAE territory and not Yemeni territory, Infrastructure projects linking it to Gulf states and UAE immigration and social service policies. The UAE’s strategy is similar to Iran’s support for Arab non-state actors.
This may be one reason why the UAE is ahead of other Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in rebuilding relations with Iran.this includes Ambassador to Tehran in 2022.
The UAE downgraded its diplomatic representation in Iran in 2016, but unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE has not Looting of Saudi diplomatic post In Iran’s capital and holy city of Mashhad. The missions were attacked by crowds protesting the kingdom’s execution of prominent Saudi Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr.In addition, the UAE Sending UAE Coast Guard Commander to Tehran in 2019 Discussions with Iranian counterparts on maritime cooperation in the Strait of Hormuz.
to confirm, growing uncertainty The reliability of the U.S. commitment to Gulf security is the most immediate driver of the UAE’s engagement with Iran. Uncertainty is also why the UAE is engaging in alternative warfare in order to project power and influence.
In this sense, the drivers of alternative war are equally valid for Iran, which sees itself surrounded by hostile U.S.-backed powers with varying degrees of security ties to Israel, and Saudi Arabia, which sees Iran-backed non-state actors and Iran’s Weapons program as an existential threat. Using Yemen as a litmus test, a Chinese-mediated Saudi-Iranian rapprochement presents an opportunity to shift structural tensions by framing an alternative war as a threat to long-term stability and security rather than a partisan issue that places Iran, rather than others, in it. Hot seats on reducing regional tensions.
“One of the most worrisome downsides of providing security assistance to non-state actors who are not cooperating but competing with government authorities is that it creates new fault lines in an already polarized conflict,” Krieger said.
He went on to say that, with regard to Libya and Yemen, “support for non-state militias does not provide a means for all parties to the conflict to be integrated into an inclusive state framework, but instead adds to” the conflict that has already occurred – tearing apart the country.
This is true for proxy wars between Iran and the Emirate and the level of Saudi support for non-state actors, as well as direct Saudi military intervention in Yemen or Iranian involvement in Syria. To be sure, it is in everyone’s interest to reduce tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. So is an inclusive approach to security that takes into account the concerns of all and strengthens institutions and governance rather than weakening reconciliation and reconstruction.
The ultimate value of Chinese mediation will depend on the extent to which it contributes to sustainable conflict management, if not conflict resolution.
To be sure, in the words of analyst Raffaello Pantucci, “People will see China’s proposal and its mediation attempts as Beijing offers evidence of something new It’s not perfect, but at least it’s not simply fanning the flames of conflict. “
Potentially, this presents an opportunity to rethink security policy and develop approaches that help create a more sustainable security environment.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and academic, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and author of a syndicated column and podcast, A World in Turmoil with James M. Dorsey.
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