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The leak of highly classified Pentagon documents, including reports of U.S. and U.K. intelligence on the United Arab Emirates’ alleged collusion with Russia, has made regional and global headlines.
According to leaks from US intelligence agencies Associated Pressa document involving the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) titled “Russia/UAE: Deepening Intelligence Relations” states:
“Based on newly obtained signals intelligence, FSB officials claim that UAE security service officials and Russia have agreed to cooperate against US and UK intelligence agencies.”
However, while U.S. officials declined to comment on the document, the UAE government strongly denied any such allegations, calling them “absolutely false.”
While it has been impossible to verify the authenticity of the leaked reports, Western officials and analysts have been closely watching Abu Dhabi’s increased cooperation with Moscow, especially since the conflict in Ukraine erupted.
Relations between Russia and UAE boom
These claims are certainly credible given the close personal relationship between the Kremlin and the UAE’s ruling elite, and the two governments share similar views on several regional issues. The war in Ukraine has further promoted mutual business ties and cooperation between Russia and the UAE, Non-oil trade up 57% in the first nine months of last year.
In early December 2022, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov estimated that by the end of 2022, the bilateral trade volume between Russia and the UAE will exceed 7.5 billion U.S. dollars, compared with 5.5 billion U.S. dollars in 2021, setting a new record for bilateral trade. All-time high in relationship history.
In addition, the decision by UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) to support OPEC+ in cutting oil production by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in October despite pressure from the United States and others It has been applauded by the Kremlin.
Notably, the emirate of Dubai has witnessed a rise in investment by wealthy Russians, with property purchases by Russian nationals in Dubai surging by 67% year-on-year.Furthermore, the UAE continues to top the list of top tourist destinations for Russians, with over 1 million Russians visiting or moving to the UAE in 2022 – impressive 60% increase From the previous year.
Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London, called the UAE “Russia’s most important strategic partner in two areas” given that it has become an important destination for wealthy Russians seeking to circumvent Western sanctions .middle East [West Asia] and Africa. “
America’s “Focus Countries”
This thriving partnership between Moscow and Abu Dhabi has not ignored In the West, there are concerns that the close relationship with Russia could affect the UAE’s relations with the West, especially in light of recent leaks of Pentagon intelligence.
As evidence, U.S. Treasury Department official Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Rosenberg explicitly designated the UAE as “theKey countries,” noting that Russia has been able to evade sanctions and “acquire more than $5 million in U.S. semiconductors and other export-controlled components, including those for battlefield use. “
Dr. Giuseppe Dentice, an expert on international relations in the Middle East at Centro Studi Internazionali Ce.SI, said that while the UAE has historically aligned itself with the United States, it has developed its own foreign policy in recent years at the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart of Milan.As Dentine explained cradle:
“The UAE has positioned itself as a free rider on the international stage, capable of dialogue with the West, Russia and China. This has led the UAE to pursue its own agenda increasingly away from the interests of the United States and the West, but nonetheless still with Washington in the Mediterranean, Many of the targets in the large quadrant between Africa and Asia are extremely relevant.”
For Jost Hiltmann, project director for the Middle East and North Africa division of the International Crisis Group think tank, it is unlikely that Abu Dhabi will turn against the US to a large extent. While the UAE and other Persian Gulf states seek closer ties with Beijing and Moscow, they stress that the United States remains their main external security partner.
Persian Gulf states seek strategic balance
Essentially, “the UAE and other Gulf Arab states pursue a foreign policy of strategic balancing and hedging between regional and global players,” he told cradle.
However, the UAE, along with other Persian Gulf countries, avoid alignment Relations with the US in a new cold war, which became apparent in the case of US escalation against Taiwan and the war in Ukraine. In this case, the UAE doesn’t want to miss out on a lucrative opportunity to engage with wealthy Russians, even if it means rejecting the West and its focus on Ukraine’s proxy war.
Dantis observes that many regional powers, especially those in the Persian Gulf region, have taken advantage of this new playing field to boost their ambitions and advance their own interests. The situation with Russia and its businessmen is emblematic of this situation.
While the U.S. is not necessarily opposed to Russians visiting and living elsewhere, Hiltman noted:
“They have concerns about the UAE being a hub for sanctions violations and an illicit economy, and they’ve had concerns about that for some time because the U.S. is concerned about sanctions violations by Russia and sanctions violations by Iran and Syria.”
However, Hiltman noted that the U.S. has not always had clarity on sanctions policy and enforcement, confusing and frustrating regional actors such as the UAE. “Officials in the Gulf Arab states have expressed great displeasure with US sanctions politics in the region, often highlighting their lack of influence and how much they are hurting local populations,” he said.
feel the pressure
Furthermore, Dentice emphasized that “the UAE must very carefully balance its own interests with the ambitions of great powers.” Abu Dhabi should avoid any unnecessary confrontation or the risk of being labeled a “pariah state,” which could damage its reputation as a business Center development and reputation.
Despite growing ties between the two countries, the UAE imposes some strict requirements on Russian businessmen and real estate investors who are finding it increasingly difficult to buy or lease space in Dubai. Financial and consulting firms have reportedly been under close scrutiny by U.S. financial regulators, so state business entities have had to be more cautious in their dealings with Russia.
Moreover, while the UAE and other Persian Gulf states have adopted a “free-rider” foreign policy that requires a difficult balancing act, it still relies heavily on U.S. security arrangements, so sooner or later, the UAE will have to negotiate Western sanctions Make some compromises.
Under pressure from the United States, the UAE has Cancel It issued a license to MTS Bank in Russia, as did Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank forced to close offices in dubai.
Abu Dhabi’s diplomatic dilemma
Despite efforts by Abu Dhabi and other Persian Gulf capitals to appeal to Washington on the importance of maintaining relations with Moscow by backing de-escalation measures between Russia and the West, such as prisoner exchanges, good relations with Russia are becoming increasingly important. Challenging Russia to be so deeply vilified in the Western capital.
Hiltermann doubts this approach will work in the long run. He noted that while “the US claims it will not push the Gulf Arab states to choose sides, Russia has in many ways become an existential issue for the US and Europe, and sooner or later Western pressure on the UAE will increase.”
It is clear that the UAE’s foreign policy approach is complex, involving a delicate balance between self-interest and great-power ambitions. Despite the UAE’s efforts to maintain good relations with Washington and Moscow, it has increasingly felt pressure from the West to break free from its entanglement with Russia, especially in the form of threats of sanctions.
While Abu Dhabi has reaped economic benefits from its strategic partnerships with numerous countries, in the field of foreign policy, the same choices have raised serious diplomatic challenges.
But the UAE cannot focus solely on great power competition abroad. Closer to home, Abu Dhabi has had to grapple with changing dynamics in West Asia, including peace talks to end the conflict in Yemen and Iran-Saudi Arabia rapprochement brokered by Beijing to change the situation.
The UAE’s success and stability in its region will ultimately depend on its ability to manage these local transformations. Meanwhile, China’s and Russia’s inroads into West Asia provide Abu Dhabi with some further leverage in response to Washington’s demands. Unless the US decides to draw a hard red line, the UAE is likely to play all its cards in all areas.
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