UAE Petrol Price Forecast for October: Stability Expected Amid Calm Global Oil Markets
Motorists in the UAE can anticipate minimal changes to petrol prices in October, following a period of relative calm in global oil markets during August. Analysis of international price trends, which directly inform the UAE’s monthly fuel price review, points towards stability rather than significant hikes or drops at the pump.
The key benchmark, Brent crude, averaged a closing price of US$67.03 per barrel in August, registering only a marginal increase from July’s average of US$66.90. This narrow fluctuation suggests that the Fuel Price Committee is unlikely to implement dramatic adjustments for the upcoming month, offering a reprieve from volatility for consumers and businesses.
How UAE Fuel Prices are Determined
The UAE’s petrol prices are set on a monthly basis by a government-led committee. The process is transparent and formula-based, linking local retail costs directly to the average of international oil prices observed in the preceding month. This means that the trends seen in August 2025 are the primary determinant of what drivers will pay throughout October 2025.
For context, the retail prices for September 2025 were set as follows:
Super 98: AED 2.70 per litre
Special 95: AED 2.58 per litre
E-Plus: AED 2.51 per litre
Factors Driving Global Price Stability
The forecast for steady prices is underpinned by two key factors: increased supply and contained geopolitical pressures.
A significant development was the recent agreement between Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government, and international oil firms to resume crude exports from Kurdistan. This deal is expected to unlock approximately 230,000 barrels per day of supply, adding to global availability and helping to balance the market.
On the geopolitical front, while risks persist—such as Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and ongoing Western debates over sanctions—these have not yet caused a substantial disruption to global supplies sufficient to trigger a major price spike. The market has, for now, absorbed these uncertainties.
October 2025 Prediction: What to Expect at the Pump
Given the modest movement in Brent crude and the influx of new supply from Kurdistan, energy analysts predict that UAE consumers will be largely shielded from a sharp increase in October. Any adjustment is expected to be slight, likely reflecting the minor uptick in August’s average.
The overall trend points towards price moderation. The combination of stable benchmark prices and increased production creates a environment conducive to steady fuel costs. However, government and industry insiders remain vigilant for any unforeseen disruptions.
The Ripple Effect of Fuel Prices on the UAE Economy
The cost of petrol has a profound cascading effect across the UAE economy. As a core input cost, even minor changes impact:
Logistics and Transportation: Directly affecting operating costs for delivery services, trucking, and freight.
Business Operations: Influencing the cost structure for sectors like construction, aviation, and shipping.
Consumer Inflation: Fuel prices feed into the cost of everyday goods and services, from groceries to public transportation.
Therefore, a period of price stability is beneficial not only for motorists but for the broader economic landscape, allowing for more predictable budgeting and planning.
Key Uncertainties That Could Disrupt Stability
While the outlook is stable, several risk factors could alter this trajectory:
Supply Chain Shocks: Unexpected events like geopolitical conflicts, infrastructure failures, or accidents at major production facilities could quickly tighten supply.
Sanctions and Export Policies: New or intensified sanctions on major oil producers, such as Russia, could create supply shortages and drive prices upward.
Demand Surges: A sudden increase in global economic activity or seasonal demand spikes that outpace supply growth could also exert upward pressure on prices.
The Bottom Line for Consumers
In summary, the outlook for UAE petrol prices in October 2025 is one of predictability and calm. Drivers should not anticipate major shocks at the pump. The most likely scenario is a minor adjustment or for prices to hold near their current levels. This stability offers a degree of certainty for both household budgets and business planning, against a backdrop of a well-supplied global oil market.
