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What if Joe Biden decides not to run for re-election? | world news

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President Joe Biden is indeed living history.Day after day, he sets new records oldest president—the only octogenarian ever to occupy the Oval Office. As Biden began his campaign to oust Donald Trump, he signaled he would not seek re-election and portrayed himself as an elder statesman who would calm the country’s turbulent politics before a younger generation took over. However, he now has every indication that he intends to stay on for another six years, Seeking re-election in 2024.

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The president stuttered in speeches, cut himself off from the media and recently had a minor health scare over a skin cancer. So why doesn’t Joe want to go?

His age was not unrevealed. The president stuttered in speeches, cut himself off from the media and recently had a minor health scare over a skin cancer. So why doesn’t Joe want to go?

The direct reason is that the mid-term elections did not pass Almost as bad for Democrats As Biden’s lackluster approval ratings indicate. That dispelled a once-entrenched sense among Democrats that he was leading the party to disaster and could lead to Trump’s re-election in 2024. Most talk of the insurgents ousting the president before he wanted to was silenced. The exception is the overt challenge by Marianne Williamson, a vulgar self-help guru who believes that the Avatar films hold the secret to peace in the Middle East.

The unexpectedly moderate condemnation from voters — who only narrowly handed Republicans a seat in the House of Representatives and even gave Democrats an extra seat in the Senate — gave the administration a chance boast of its achievements. The president steered the country out of the pandemic, passed the largest climate change mitigation bill in history, repaired the League of Nations, and led the West in support of Ukraine. A young president with a similar record would have no problem seeking re-election.

But another impulse that may keep the Democratic vote in place is extreme risk aversion. The party is horrified by Trump’s return to the White House and the damage it will cause. Biden’s current stance owes a similar pragmatic calculation: When the party risks nominating the ultra-progressive Bernie Sanders in 2020, the support surrounding Biden solidifies as the only viable option to win.

This time around, many Democrats also worry that an open primary could have disastrous consequences. Vice President Kamala Harris is notorious for handling issues assigned to her, such as stopping immigration at the southern border. Her approval rating among the public is even lower than that of the president. Her gaffes are on par with her boss’s, but there are no old-age excuses available. Yet plenty of donors and perhaps enough voters would find the prospect of America’s first female vice president out of the running distasteful. The memory of Hillary Clinton’s death still haunts the party.

Despite her weaknesses, few in Washington expect Biden to pick another running mate. The Vice Presidential Survival Sweepstakes is a quadrennial parlor game, but the last president to actually play it was Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.

Plan B (The Economist)

Biden himself sees it as his mission to defeat Trumpism. In a scathing speech in Philadelphia last year, he said, “Donald Trump and the ‘Make America Great Again’ Republicans represent a type of extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.” beat Trump like a drum; he thinks he can do it again in 2024.

But while Biden’s credentials as a Trump beater are impeccable, the calculations in the race against Republican alternatives are less convincing. The president’s approval ratings remain lackluster, only marginally better than Trump’s during his presidency. A recent YouGov poll found that only 44 percent of Democrats are keen on Biden re-running. (Other polls show even less enthusiasm.) Still, most aren’t sure who they’d rather replace him. Just 2 percent said they would like to see Ms Harris top the list.

give way while the sun is shining

Democrats believe that widespread antipathy toward Trump may be valid because Trump has alienated much of the party’s donor class, which will mask some of Biden’s weaknesses. But compared with Ron DeSantis, the 44-year-old Republican governor of Florida, who is closer in age to some of the president’s grandsons, that seems particularly extreme. And it’s striking: Unlike the 2020 campaign, which was largely conducted during lockdown, the upcoming campaign will require a grueling campaign.

There is precedent for presidents reneging on their reelection promises, but it’s not a happy one. In 1968, after a disappointing performance in the New Hampshire primary, Lyndon Johnson abandoned his re-election bid eight months before the presidential election, and his party subsequently lost to Richard Nixon. Still, an open primary may not be as disastrous as some Democrats fear.

When assessing a party’s presidency, conventional wisdom tends to focus on those who ran in the last election. Most of the defeated Democrats — such as current Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren — haven’t inspired much confidence as contenders. Ms Harris is so bleak that she won’t freeze the field the way Clinton did in 2016. This leaves room for other options.

As the Democrats move away from the progressive positions that have prevailed in 2020 and return to the center, a group of governors who are more pragmatic than senators appears to be more attractive. Democrats should not pick progressives like California’s Gavin Newsom or Illinois’ JB Pritzker — both of whom have made no secret of their desire to run for president — —Democrats may pick Gretchen Whitmer, who just won an easy reelection in an important Midwestern district. Swing state, Michigan. Newly-elected Pennsylvania and Maryland Governors Josh Shapiro and Wes Moore were talented speakers. Jared Polis, the free-thinking governor of Colorado, was an effective tactician.

And governors like Andy Beshear of Kentucky and John Bel Edwards of Louisiana, who have proven capable of winning in red states. Gina Raimondo, who served as governor of Rhode Island before becoming Biden’s commerce secretary, is arguably the most effective member of this administration.

If a senator had to be picked, a mild-mannered newcomer might be a better fit for the general election than a progressive bomb-dropper. Raphael Warnock was an African-American preacher who won the crucial swing state of Georgia twice in two years. Mark Kelly has done the same in Arizona, and he will be the first astronaut president of the schoolchildren’s dream.

All are capable, but no one will challenge the president unless he makes excuses for himself. Almost every modern president has faced serious incumbent challengers in the primaries — Johnson, Jimmy Carter, George Bush Sr. — and lost. No Democrat wants to be blamed for causing their party to fail.

Biden is obsessed with studying examples of past presidents and convening committees of historians at the White House. He would do well to look back to the aftermath of the modern era, to the time when George Washington relinquished power so that the cause of democracy could flourish. After completing the difficult task of defeating Trump, Biden has achieved unexpected success. That was a fitting coda; a loss to a more dynamic Republican would be an unseemly end for America’s oldest politician.

Staying Ahead of American Politics check and balance, our weekly subscription newsletter, explores the state of American democracy and issues that matter to voters.You can also read other articles about Elections in 2024 And follow us to track the changes in Joe Biden popularity.

© 2023, The Economist Limited. all rights reserved. From The Economist, published with permission.Original content available at www.economist.com

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