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In 2019, Serbia surpassed NATO member Croatia to become the largest military expenditure country in the Balkans, spending US$1.14 billion, an increase of 43% over the previous year, making headlines.
According to open source intelligence experts at Janes Defense Budgets, Serbia’s defense budget has almost doubled this year, from 700 million U.S. dollars in 2018 to approximately 1.5 billion U.S. dollars.
As the pandemic intensified last year, many Serbs reported in November that the country’s priorities were being questioned More money spent on weapons Instead of building a COVID-19 hospital.
At the same time, the display of military power has become the norm.
In September, as part of celebrating the unity of Serbia, A new national holidayPresident Aleksandar Vucic stated that the army was “five times stronger” than it was a few years ago because he announced increased spending.
Following the military exercises held in the Sandzak area in June, Vucic Said The army will “increased substantially in the next nine months” and will “always be capable of defending our country and people.”
These announcements made neighboring countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and Montenegro tired of Serbia’s motives, especially the Minister of the Interior Alexander Vulin’s call for the formation of “Serbia World“.
Wulin has stated on many occasions in public and local media that all Serbs need to be politically united under the guidance of Belgrade, “as time goes by, peace…official unity”, implying that they are united in the territory they live in.
Critics slammed his call as an updated version of the greater Serbian ideology of the 1990s, which ultimately led to war and ethnic cleansing in the region.
Daniel Selville, one of the negotiators of the Dayton Peace Agreement that ended the Bosnian War in 1995, said: “The Serbian world is no different from Greater Serbia or all Serbs in a country.”
Reuf Bajrovic, co-chairman of the U.S.-Europe Union Organization, told Al Jazeera that he believes that Vucic is ready to use military forces in Kosovo and Bosnia when the international situation changes in his favor-for example, when the U.S. forces from the KFOR (NATO-leading peacekeeping operations in Kosovo) Troops) or when Russia-Serbia’s ally-decides to directly intervene in the area.
“The Russian-trained mercenaries in Bosnia and Montenegro are an integral part of Serbia’s military strategy in the region. It is a transcript. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin acted before the invasion of Georgia and Ukraine,” Bajrovich said.
“Vucic government officials have publicly stated that Serbia will use military forces in its surrounding areas, including the threats Vucic issued against NATO forces in Kosovo last week,” Bajrovich said.
Last week, as Escalation of tensions At the Serbian-Kosovo border, due to a license plate dispute, Vucic provided NATO with Ultimatum Respond within 24 hours to prevent violence against Kosovo Serbs.
He told the NATO Secretary-General on the phone that if they did not, Serbia would “react”.
“We now have 14 MiG-29s,” Vucic Narrate Tell Western officials on a Serbian talk show. “They thought I was joking… Doesn’t Serbia have the right [use] Its helicopters and planes are in central Serbia? “
Serville said that if Serbia takes military action against Bosnia or Kosovo, it must abandon any EU ambitions, adding, “But Vucic seems to have given up joining the EU.
“The situation is dangerous. NATO needs to make it clear that it will not tolerate Serbia’s use of troops against neighboring countries, as it did to Kosovo without an army last week.”
According to Janes’ defense budget, “the tension with the former Kosovo province of Serbia remains the most important determinant of Serbia’s national security”.
‘Hidden from the public eye’
For Marija Ignjatijevic, a researcher at the Belgrade Security Policy Center, the exact direction of Serbian defense policy is a “million-dollar problem.”
“most [Serbia’s] Plans and strategic documents are still hidden from the public eye or do not exist at all,” she said, explaining that the increase in the military budget was “temporarily” based on foreign policy interests.
Ignjatijevic said: “Furthermore, Serbian armed forces and armaments have been continuously abused in magnificent national broadcast exercises and parades, followed by tabloid propaganda campaigns-to consolidate power and gain more votes, while also scoring points in geostrategic games.”
Andrew MacDonald, chief analyst at Janes Defense Budgets, told Al Jazeera that in 2021, Serbia’s defense spending jumped to 2.6% of its GDP, “absolutely above the country’s normal level” and “above average levels, especially for Europe. “.
For Serwer, Vucic’s position is “clear.”
Although the Serbian president will soon use force in Kosovo or Bosnia is still doubtful, “he welcomes the opportunity to do so,” Selville said.
“Serbia is strengthening its relations with Russia and China, reducing its ambitions for Europe, and focusing on the’Serbian World’, which is another name for Greater Serbia.
“The military balance in the region is changing, and this has an impact on perceptions everywhere.”
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