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BOSTON, Jan. 31 (PTI) — The world will cross the 1.5-degree Celsius global warming threshold within 10 to 15 years, even with falling emissions, according to a study using artificial intelligence (AI) to predict results.
If emissions remain high over the next few decades, the study predicts a one in two and more than one in four chances of warming the Earth’s average temperature by 2 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era by mid-century Likelihood of – The probability of reaching the threshold by 2060 is five.
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The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, used artificial intelligence to predict climate change based on recent temperature observations around the world.
Noah Diffenbaugh, lead author of the study, said: “Using an entirely new approach that relies on the current state of the climate system to predict the future, we confirm that the world is on the cusp of crossing the 1.5C threshold .” Climate Scientist, Stanford University, USA.
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“Our AI models are very confident that if it takes another half century to reach net-zero emissions, then warming could exceed 2 degrees Celsius,” said Diefenburg, who co-authored the study with Colorado State University atmospheric scientist Elizabeth Baker. Enns.
The finding could be disputed, Diffenbaugh said, because other authoritative assessments, including the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), concluded that if emissions fell to net zero before then, it would be unlikely to reach 2 degrees mark 2080.
Exceeding the 1.5C and 2C thresholds would mean failing to meet the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement, in which countries pledged to keep global warming “well below” 2C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing more ambitious targets Limit warming to 1.5 C.
Previous assessments have used global climate models to simulate future warming trajectories; statistical techniques to infer near-term warming rates; and carbon budgets to calculate how quickly emissions need to fall to stay below the Paris Agreement target.
For the new estimates, the researchers used a type of artificial intelligence called a neural network, which they trained on a large archive of output from widely used global climate model simulations.public transport
(This is an unedited and auto-generated story from a Syndicated News feed, the content body may not have been modified or edited by LatestLY staff)
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