WORLD NEWS | Russia and Ukraine have a common enemy – time

360 News, London, February 20th. On Christmas Eve, General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said on the war between Ukraine and Russia that victory may not be achieved through military means, so the need to turn to other means means, noting A possible slowdown in fighting offers a window of opportunity for negotiations.

His comments were criticized by other observers and Ukrainians, who clearly had drive and morale. Milley’s assessment suggested that neither side was dominant, and later clarifying his remarks, he said: Russia is now supporting it.

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You want to negotiate when you are strong and your opponent is weak. As discussed by the Armed Services Association, deciding the right time to negotiate or gain advantage is a critical issue in warfare. Ukraine appears to be gaining momentum as the conflict enters its second year. But both sides are under considerable time pressure, which must be factored into their victory theories.

Keeping up with or advancing with the times has always been a feature of war strategy. No one knows who will win the conflict (or what victory is), but the passage of time, understood in military terms as endurance and exhaustion, can help gauge its direction.

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Russia’s invasion last February was carefully calibrated to specific dates and seasons. They waited until after the Beijing Olympics, but before the spring thaw turned Ukraine’s hard ground to mud. Russia’s entire strategy has been shaped by the idea of ​​a brief but violent invasion that would bring down the government of President Vladimir Zelensky. Russian President Vladimir Putin believes Ukraine is vulnerable and that Kiev will fall within days. it doesn’t.

Throughout history, military planners have set timetables, and they have sometimes become hostage to those timetables, as in the case of the Germans in 1914. As historian AJP Taylor memorably points out, World War I was imposed on European statesmen by railroad timetables. Germany isn’t the only country miscalculating the time. All parties to the conflict believe the war will be over by Christmas.

Seasons determine the winner more than any military strength or showdown, a lesson Napoleon learned when he invaded Russia in 1812 and Hitler in 1941, planning to conquer Moscow before their armies froze to death.

Time can also be seen as less of a stress and more of an ally. Combatants can seek victory simply by surviving and running out of time on their enemies. This is especially true in counterinsurgency and national liberation wars.

The United States was a beneficiary of this Fabian strategy in the Revolutionary War. Two centuries later, America lost momentum again in Vietnam and Afghanistan. A captured Taliban fighter reportedly observed, You have a watch. We have time.

As Putin learned in Ukraine, the further a movement strays from its original strategy, the greater the chance of disaster. While the Russians are far from their original strategic and campaign plans, it’s unclear whether time will be an ally for both sides. Pitting the Russian and Ukrainian clocks against each other offers a new way to assess which one is likely to outlast the other.

moscow clock

The ticking clock in Moscow involves several interrelated pressures that could cause Russia to run out of gas before Ukraine. It is almost universally accepted that special military operations failed (as originally conceived). While Putin has scaled back his original goals, he shows no sign of giving up on the war, perhaps seeing his clock as the favourite.

However, not knowing the reality of his own clock and the correct line of response could lead to Putin’s political

Quite possibly, literal demise. One of the main problems facing Russia is the poor performance of its military.battle losses

Some estimates put the death toll at closer to 200,000

It is not sustainable in the long run without national mobilization (which would be politically worrisome) and replenishment of modern weapons (which is impossible despite Iran’s support for drones).

Putin begrudgingly began a partial mobilization in September to build up his force, buying him some time. But the conscripts arrived in Ukraine with little to no training and no outdated weapons.

Even if Putin can mobilize more manpower, the weapons of the Russian armed forces will be consumed quickly, especially higher-end precision-guided munitions, and these cannot be recruited from Russian regions like conscription. Restocking has all but stalled due to Western sanctions.

Putin’s economic clock appears to be mixed, as the Russian economy officially enters recession in the second half of 2022. However, while the Central Bank of Russia forecasts a further contraction of 7.1%, the IMF recently upgraded its economic forecast for Russia, forecasting a slight growth in 2023. This must be considered together with the long-term impact of the sanctions which will continue to have an impact.

While Putin has set aside a sizeable war chest to protect his economy, many Russian assets are frozen abroad due to sanctions. Putin is still making money and using energy as a weapon, but the Europeans do seem to be transitioning and finding new suppliers. To win, Putin may feel he needs to weather the cohesiveness of the West, and the cold winter in Europe, which needs Russian energy, is a key pillar of the plan.

Putin underestimated the cohesion and unity of the West in response to his invasion. If he and his army survive long enough to see Western cohesion crumble, that could be a deciding factor. Western aid has enabled Ukraine’s resistance, and sanctions have exhausted Russia. Aid interruptions and sanctions could quickly worsen the situation in Ukraine. Perhaps Putin sees this as a race against time that he can win.

Whether cohesion among Western nations can continue indefinitely is a question; it probably cannot. While the U.S. can chart its own policy course, European institutions must agree to act. For any analysis of Western cohesion, definitions matter. What we call the West (rich democracies providing military aid to Ukraine) can be divided into two factions: America and Europe, although unity within Europe is far from guaranteed.

Growing public dissent could be another problem for Putin, especially if future mobilizations affect Russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the past, he has been able to suppress free speech with an iron fist. The incursions and disastrous consequences so far have initially sparked public dissent in Russia, but his security services appear to have crushed the protesters, albeit relentlessly.

In addition to mounting public pressure, Russian elites are becoming increasingly irresistible. As Putin tries to shift responsibility and improve performance by reshuffling the leadership of his military, he has had to send in strongman (read: ruthless) commanders and even enlist the paramilitary Wagner Group to take on a larger share of combat duties in Ukraine.

The risk for Putin is to choose between sending in an army of ineffective but loyal sycophants or appointing a more effective strongman who might attack him. With all these social and political divisions and pressure on Russia’s clock, Putin’s ability to salvage any similar victory is rapidly fading. His hope is to outlast the Ukrainian clock.

ukraine clock

A year later, the Ukrainian military remains strongly motivated and, thanks to unprecedented military, economic and political support from the West, more capable than ever of defending and retaking their territories. Still, the main path to victory may just be a slog in stalling Putin and depleting Russia’s military.

The Ukrainian army has exceeded expectations, doing well against a Russian army considered unstoppable. Facing an existential threat to their homeland, the morale of Ukrainian fighters is high, while that of the Russian army is plummeting.

Still, Ukraine faces a time crunch to rebuild its shattered economy and Russia’s devastating blow to critical infrastructure. It is indeed possible for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (or their supporters) to exhaust certain weapons systems, or even steam more generally, and much depends on the soundness and durability of external financial and military support, and the avoidance of stalemate Bath’s initial battle was similar.

In a material sense, the burning rate of Ukrainian weapons has already exceeded the calculations of the use of the donor countries. NATO countries, including the United States, appear ready to keep up with Ukraine’s demands. But 20 of its 30 members are fully utilized, while others have some much-needed resources but are mired in export control red tape, a NATO official said.

How much longer is Ukraine expected to receive substantial foreign military and economic aid? The answer to that question will likely determine how much time Ukraine has left. It is difficult to imagine routine Ukrainian resistance without a sustained and uninterrupted infusion of foreign military and intelligence assistance.

Ukrainians are right about the frozen conflict and diminished international attention.Currently, Ukraine dominates the news cycle, prompting

Ukrainian flags fly from capitals across the globe to the social media pages of celebrities. Ukraine has dominated the online narrative with its expert weaponization of memes and urban legends, while Zelensky has been feted by world leaders.

How long can this global attention and popular support last? A new crisis, a new strain of COVID, or even an early US presidential election could compete with Ukraine for the world’s attention. A slump in global interest could significantly shorten Ukraine’s clock.

Both clocks are ticking

Time is a key consideration in assessing the prospects of both parties. For Russia, the decline of its military, manpower shortage, unsustainable loss of equipment, compounding economic challenges and Western support for Ukraine are all running against Putin’s clock.

It remains to be seen whether further support from Russia’s few remaining friends or a reshuffling of commanders (now fully commanded by Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov) will make a difference.

Pushing Russian troops out of Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders would be a sweeping victory for Ukraine, but lingering questions remain in Western capitals about Putin’s escalating red lines, especially regarding the illegal annexation of Ukraine. The status of Rimia. Outlasting Putin and clocking Ukraine with foreign support seems the clearest path to victory.

How each clock interacts with variables, as well as the opponent’s clock, provides a way to assess relative advantage as the war continues. As military and political leaders throughout history have known, time waits for no man. (360info.org)

(This is an unedited and auto-generated story from a Syndicated News feed, the content body may not have been modified or edited by LatestLY staff)