UAE Weather Update: Rain and Cooler Temperatures Herald Winter’s Arrival
As the UAE’s fierce summer heat begins to relent, the country is entering a period of dynamic seasonal change. Meteorologists from the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) are forecasting a significant shift in UAE weather, with an increase in rainfall and a steady drop in temperatures marking the unofficial start of the winter season.
Dr. Ahmed Habib, a specialist meteorologist at the NCM, has provided a clear outlook for the coming weeks. “We are observing a low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea interacting with an upper-atmosphere air trough,” Dr. Habib explained. “This combination is enhancing cloud formation and will lead to unstable weather conditions, particularly affecting the eastern and southern regions of the UAE from around October 21.”
This meteorological phenomenon is expected to trigger convective cloud activity, which can result in scattered showers and, in some cases, heavier downpours. The NCM also notes that these conditions are typical for this transitional period and may occasionally produce hail, especially over mountainous and inland areas.
Understanding the UAE’s Seasonal Transition
This erratic weather pattern is a hallmark of the UAE’s shift from summer to winter. The transition is often characterized by rapid swings in conditions, as evidenced in recent days where moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds swept across several emirates, including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, and Fujairah.
The temperature contrast has been equally dramatic. While daytime highs recently reached 39.3°C in Abu Dhabi’s Al Shawamekh, the cooler nights in the northern emirates saw temperatures plunge to as low as 18.1°C in the highlands of Ras Al Khaimah. This significant diurnal temperature range is a clear signal of the changing seasons.
The widespread cloud cover observed over regions from Ras Al Khaimah to Al Ain is a direct result of this instability. The intensity and distribution of rainfall will vary, dependent on the strength and movement of these convective clouds. Meteorologists also suggest that residual influences from tropical systems in the Arabian Sea may be contributing to the current unstable pattern.
Cloud Seeding Efforts and Weather Management
To capitalize on the natural cloud formation, the NCM is actively conducting cloud-seeding operations as part of the UAE’s rain enhancement program. These flights are deployed whenever suitable convective clouds are identified, aiming to maximize rainfall potential and bolster the country’s water security during this fertile weather window.
UAE Weather Outlook: What to Expect in the Coming Weeks
Residents and visitors should prepare for the following conditions as the countdown to winter begins:
Increased Rainfall:Â Starting from late October, expect scattered showers with a higher probability in the eastern and southern parts of the country. These may be intense but are often localized.
Cooler Temperatures:Â A noticeable and steady decline in daytime temperatures will continue, while nights and early mornings will become progressively cooler and more pleasant.
Rising Humidity & Cloud Cover:Â Early morning hours will see a rise in humidity levels, particularly along the coast. Intermittent cloud cover will become more common, offering respite from the sun.
Potential for Hail:Â During periods of strong convective activity, inland and mountainous areas like Al Ain and Ras Al Khaimah may experience short-lived hail.
Unpredictable Shifts:Â The weather will remain changeable, so staying updated with the latest forecasts from the NCM is crucial for planning outdoor activities.
While the official start of winter is on December 21, the UAE is already experiencing its precursor. The classic pattern of daytime cloud build-up and milder nights will define the weeks ahead. As the nation moves deeper into autumn, these unsettled patterns signify a welcome transition away from the summer heat toward the much-anticipated cool and temperate winter climate.