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Monday, March 4, 2024

“Equity Markets Rise Alongside Treasury Yields; Oil Surges Amid Concerns Over Supply”-1

Treasury Yields MSCI’s global equity index witnessed a marginal advance, leaving investors to grapple with conflicting messages from the Federal Reserve regarding potential 2024 interest rate cuts. Simultaneously, oil prices surged due to concerns over supply disruptions stemming from increased attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi militants. Despite skepticism surrounding Russia’s December export cut plan, geopolitical tensions and ample supply contributed to the rally in oil prices.

Federal Reserve Discord: Goolsbee and Mester Push Back

Chicago and Cleveland Fed Presidents Resist Market Expectations for Rate Cuts

On Monday, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee resisted market expectations for interest rate cuts, a sentiment echoed by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who holds a voting position until her retirement in June 2024. This discordant tone followed dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier in the week, initially prompting investor celebrations. However, sentiment shifted on Friday when New York Fed President John Williams cautioned against premature speculation about rate cuts.

Mixed Market Reactions: Treasury Yields

Stocks Respond Variedly, Treasury Yields Rise

In response to Goolsbee’s comments, longer-dated US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year note reaching 3.960%, the 30-year bond yielding 4.0688%, and the 2-year note at 4.4653%. The stock market displayed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 0.16%, the S&P 500 rising by 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite adding 0.51%. Conversely, the pan-European STOXX 600 index experienced a 0.27% decline, and MSCI’s global stock gauge increased by 0.14%.

Dollar Weakens Amidst Rate Cut Signals

US Dollar Eases Against Euro, Lingering Impact from Rate Cut Hints

The US dollar eased against the euro, extending last week’s decline, influenced by signals hinting at possible rate cuts. The dollar index fell by 0.058%, with the euro gaining 0.23% to $1.0919. The Japanese yen weakened by 0.61% against the greenback at 143.04 per dollar, while Sterling traded at $1.2633, reflecting a 0.33% decline.

Global Focus: Bank of Japan Policy Decision and Oil Surge: Treasury Yields

BOJ Decision and Red Sea Attacks Drive Oil Prices Higher

Investors are closely monitoring the Bank of Japan’s policy decision, with expectations of the potential scrapping of negative rates, making it one of the few central banks worldwide considering a tightening stance. Oil prices saw an increase following Red Sea attacks by Yemeni Houthi militants, disrupting maritime trade. Major oil companies, including BP, temporarily paused transit in the region. US crude rose by 2.58% to $73.27 per barrel, and Brent reached $78.57, marking a 2.64% increase on the day.

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