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Khartoum: 16 months after Sudan’s top generals overthrew the transition to civilian rule, the coup leader has been embroiled in a dangerous power struggle and competition within the security forces has deepened, analysts warn.
In October 2021, Army Chief of Staff Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy, Mohammad Hamdan Daglo, worked together to dismantle the short-lived transitional authority.
Their once united front has degenerated into “brinkmanship”, said Magdi Gizuli of the Rift Valley Institute think-tank.
“The power struggle in Sudan is no longer a military-civilian struggle,” Gizuli said. “Now Burhan against Daglo, everyone has their own alliance.”
The coup triggered cuts in international aid and sparked nearly a week of protests, exacerbating political and economic woes in one of the world’s poorest countries.
Burhan, a career soldier from northern Sudan who rose through the ranks under the three-year rule of now-jailed General Bashir, said the coup was “necessary” to bring more factions into politics.
But Daglo, commander of the formidable paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, also known as Hemeti, has since called the coup a “mistake”.
The RSF force was formed in 2013 out of the Janjaweed militia that Bashir launched against non-Arab insurgents in western Darfur a decade ago, where it has been accused by human rights groups of war crimes.
Daglo – who hails from Camel-herding Zaigat in Darfur, Arabia – said the coup brought no change but the return of loyalists to the Bashir-era regime, angering religious factions.
Amin Ismail, a military expert, said the disagreement between the two generals also reflected a long-running rift between the regular army and Daglo’s Rapid Support Forces.
“Burhan wants the rapid support force to be included in the army according to the rules and regulations within the army,” Gizuli said.
“Daglo seems to want to reorganize the Supreme Army Command first so he can be involved before the integration.”
In December, Burhan and Daglo signed a preliminary deal with several factions — including the key civilian group Forces for Freedom and Change — as part of a two-stage political process towards a civilian-led transition.
But critics called the deal “ambiguous” and cast doubt on the generals’ commitment to stepping down from politics after a civilian government came to power.
“The December agreement highlighted divisions centered on different aspirations,” Ismail said.
Gizouli said the agreement was a “delaying tactic” for Burhan, while Daglo sought to “improve competitiveness” and branded himself an “ally of the FFC”.
“It’s clear that neither of them has any intention of quitting politics because they’ve been investing in the coalition to keep them going,” he said.
Daglo has been jetting for support in the region, traveling to neighboring Eritrea and Equatorial Guinea, two African countries with close ties to Russia.
Daglo began his own visit a day after Burhan visited Chad last month.
Analyst Kholood Khair said a recent move by Egypt appeared to favor Burhan and “exacerbated tensions between the generals”.
In February, Cairo hosted a workshop among several Sudanese factions, including those opposed to the December deal, notably two former rebel commanders – Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim and the governor of Darfur Minnie Minawi.
In an article for the Institute for Liberating the Middle East Policy, Kyle said the Cairo initiative had political groups seeking to make deals “with one general and not another.”
“This is a wrong choice that will only lead to further polarization of the political space and could lead to an armed confrontation between Burhan and Hemeti’s forces with disastrous consequences.”
In a recent address to RSF troops, Daglo said his disagreement had nothing to do with the armed forces.
“The divide is people clinging to power,” Daglo said, insisting he supports a civilian government.
“We oppose anyone who wants to be a dictator.”
The Sudanese Armed Forces hit back on Saturday, dismissing allegations that army generals were “unwilling” to “complete the process of change and democratic transition”.
“This is a public attempt to gain political sympathy and hinder the transition process,” it said in a statement.
On Sunday, Sudan’s ruling Sovereign Council said Burhan and Daglo held security talks.
While direct military confrontation, which many fear is unlikely, is not the only potential outcome, Ismail said. “It’s a political divide … but it could push the Sudanese people to stand up and turn against everyone,” Ismail said.
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