Bitcoin (bitcoin) started the new week firmly above $30,000 after a recent run-up.
After several weeks of sideways trading, Bitcoin’s price action continues to match bulls’ expectations. Can we continue?
That’s the question on every trader’s mind this week. $30,000 is all the way to the weekly close and beyond, but in the volatile cryptocurrency market, anything can happen, and it does.
The macroeconomic environment in the last week of June was somewhat “standard”, providing some potential risk asset price catalysts, but avoiding multiple major data releases at the same time.
News from Russia over the weekend appeared to have had little impact on market performance elsewhere, with most of it wrapping up before the start of trading this week.
Turning to Bitcoin itself, a stocktaking phase appears to have arrived while fundamentals are poised to pull back from all-time highs.
Market sentiment is also shaky, especially at $30,000, which is a key level.
Cointelegraph explores these factors, as well as those influencing BTC price action in the short-term, in a weekly wrap-up.
Bitcoin bulls protect $30,000 at weekly close
Bitcoin trades lower in final stretch of weekend Briefly touching $31,000.
Despite a lack of momentum, the bulls managed to hold onto the $30,000 mark, with $30,500 back in focus, according to data at the time of writing June 26 Cointelegraph Markets Pro and transaction view.
BTC/USD rose a total of 15.6% last week, marking the third-best weekly performance of 2023, according to Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.
Popular trader Crypto Tony said: “The focus this week is on turning the $31,000 resistance/supply zone into support.” Tell Twitter followers.
“That’s all I care about, but I do go long when we’re consolidating below that level. Any sharp dips, I’m going to take profits and look for a re-entry.”
“It’s sure to be a big week for all of us,” he commented.
Fellow trader Jelle agrees, predicting a fresh uptick once $30,000 is permanently disposed of.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital described the broader bitcoin price correction as “over,” noting new inflows into altcoins.
Part of weekend analysis: “As BTC holds steady, we’ve seen some inflows into altcoins” pointed outadding that the total cryptocurrency market cap has seen an impressive retest of support.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm 8, is also keeping an eye on the overall cryptocurrency market, eyeing its potential to reclaim the 200-week moving average.
Fed’s Powell and PCE data headline ‘huge’ macro week
The week will be dominated by two key events in the broader economy, notably U.S. data, with comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Powell will hold “discussions” on economic issues over two days on June 28-29, while the latest U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index data will be released on June 30.
Powell has previously said that this is the Fed’s preferred standard for measuring inflation trends, and better-than-expected figures may affect its next interest rate adjustment decision.
“Major week, ‘Fed pivot’ in doubt,” financial commentary resource Kobesi Letter Summarize Part of the Twitter report.
Corbysi mentioned the possibility of the Fed abandoning the rate hike cycle for good, while Powell previously suggested that more rate hikes may continue after leaving unchanged in June.
Newest data As of June 26, CME Group’s FedWatch tool was pricing in a more than 70% chance of a rate hike in July.
Mining Difficulty Drops Despite Rising Bitcoin Price
Interestingly, contrary to Bitcoin price strength, Bitcoin network fundamentals are cooling its own gains, although this may be temporary.
according to According to the latest prediction of BTC.com, the difficulty of the Bitcoin network will decrease when it is about to adjust on June 29.
That would mark the first downward correction since early May, but is now expected to be the second-largest correction in 2023 at around -2.5%.
Overall, however, the change is modest in the historical context, with mining company Simple Mining describe Rising spot prices and falling difficulty became “two favorite things for miners.”
Meanwhile, James McAvity, CEO of Texas-based bitcoin energy firm Cormint, said local events were responsible for the difficulty.
Hash rate, an estimated metric of computing power dedicated to mining, showed similar behavior on the day, with the rate dropping from the previous week’s all-time highs, according to the data. data From data resource Blockchain.com.
Bitcoin RHODL Ratio Points to ‘New Breakout’
Renowned analyst Philip Swift believes that Bitcoin is at the dawn of a “new speculative cycle.”
in his latest Research The LookIntoBitcoin founder believes that in Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio indicator, BTC supply is starting to shift from a holder-based instrument to a speculative one.
Swift’s RHODL looks at the realized value of coins of a certain age – their value when they were last moved. The RHODL ratio looks at a one-week range versus a one- to two-year range.
“It also calibrates for increased holdings and lost coins over time by multiplying this ratio by the number of days in the market. When the 1-week value is significantly higher than the 1-2 year value, it is a sign of an overheated market. ’” Swift explained in his article. introduce On LookIntoBitcoin.
Although superficially complex, the RHODL ratio can be used as Useful Tools for Bitcoin Price Cycles The classic behavior expected at the start of a bull market is currently being repeated.
The indicator shows that while this is the property of long-term holders until the end of 2022, opportunistic traders are now stepping in again, pointing to a shift towards broader mainstream trading interest.
Swift commented: “As new entrants start to enter the market and younger coins hold greater value, the RHODL ratio appears primed for a new breakout.”
Emotions may “swing in the other direction”
Cryptocurrency market sentiment seems to be very concerned about the fate of the $30,000 price level.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index, measure Market sentiment has fluctuated wildly in recent days as BTC/USD attempts to create new support.
After hitting a high of 65/100 on June 22, the index has lost 10 points, trending towards “neutral” territory as spot price momentum cools.
The index is a lagging indicator, but it shows how sensitive the market is to current price action, not just BTC, ETH is also trying to flip $2,000 for support.
According to sentiment data, popular traders warn Fight against cravings until clearer signals are sent.
“Sentiment could shift in the other direction,” he said.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and transaction involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.