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Thursday, November 30, 2023

Indian rupee nears historic lows, faces more pressure.

The Indian rupee, near a record low, faces ongoing pressure due to factors like crude oil prices and the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Non-deliverable forwards suggest the rupee may open around 22.683-22.694 to the UAE dirham, slightly lower than the previous session’s 22.688.

It’s worth noting that the local currency is very close to its all-time low of 22.694. Some forex experts predict further depreciation, while a few suspect that the Reserve Bank of India might have intervened in the non-deliverable forwards market to support the rupee.

Meanwhile, Brent crude has dipped below $94, down from its recent year-to-date high of $95.96. The dollar index is marginally lower at 105.08, and Asian currencies remain stable before the Fed’s decision. The market generally expects the Fed to maintain the policy rate, with a negligible chance of a rate hike.

Investors are keenly watching for the central bank’s interest rate projections for 2023 and 2024. Some analysts anticipate a modest increase in the 2023 median policy rate forecast, while others expect a shift upwards in the 2024 median rate projection, indicating a slightly less accommodative stance in the coming years.

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